(WASHINGTON) — Above-normal activity is still expected for the remainder of hurricane season, according to the updated hurricane forecast from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
The agency is continuing to predict an above-normal number of named storms for the year but with slightly less confidence than when the initial hurricane outlook was issued in May.
There is now a 50% chance of an above-normal season, a 35% chance of a near-normal season and a 15% chance of a below-normal season, according to the updated assessment, which was released on Thursday. In May, the agency forecast a 60% chance of above-normal activity.
For the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season, NOAA is forecasting 13 to 18 total named storms with winds of 39 mph or greater — with five to nine of those storms predicted to become hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or greater.
Two to five of those named storms are expected to become major hurricanes between Categories 3 and 5 and winds of 111 mph or higher, according to NOAA.
As of Thursday, the 2025 season has seen four named tropical storms and no hurricanes. The names Andrea, Barry, Chantal and Dexter have been used so far. Erin is the next name up.
Climatologically, the Atlantic season typically sees its first hurricane on Aug. 11.
“No two storms are alike,” NOAA’s National Weather Service Director Ken Graham said in a press release. “Every storm presents unique, life-threatening hazards that can impact people in both coastal and inland communities. Have a plan in place, and know the actions you should take before, during and after the wide range of hazards that the hurricane season can bring.”
On Wednesday, Colorado State University (CSU) updated its seasonal forecast for storm activity in the Atlantic Basin. While the university’s team have also maintained their previous forecast of a slightly above-average season, they said they have lower-than-normal confidence in their outlook due to a significant difference in wind speed and direction in the atmosphere over the Caribbean Sea in June and July.
Over the next two weeks, there is a 55% chance of above-average activity, a 35% chance of near-average activity and just a 10% chance of below-average activity, according to CSU.
CSU is predicting 16 named storms, eight hurricanes and three major hurricanes for the 2025 season. It will be issuing its two-week forecasts from Thursday through the peak of the season.
Several key weather and climate factors influenced the updated forecasts, according to NOAA and CSU. The sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central Atlantic are warming and are now a bit higher than normal, and cool, neutral conditions in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are expected during the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. These conditions make it easier for hurricanes to form and strengthen.
“Many of the factors we identified ahead of the season are still at play, and conditions are largely tracking along with our May predictions,” Matt Rosencrans, the lead hurricane season forecaster at NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction, said.
ABC News’ Matthew Glasser, Dan Manzo, Kyle Reiman, Dan Peck and Sam Wnek contributed to this report.
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